Real Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria (2017 - 2030): Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model-Based Forecasts

Real Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria (2017 - 2030): Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model-Based Forecasts

Author by Dr. Andy Okwu

Journal/Publisher: Babcock Journal Of Economics

Volume/Edition: 6

Language: English

Pages: 100 - 113

Abstract

Appropriate policy initiatives to sustain the reversal of the downturn recently experienced in Nigeria, and proactive measures capable of forestalling future    re-occurrence require hindsight knowledge of time series values of real gross domestic product as a basis for projecting the possible output growth of the country in the years ahead. This paper has presented forecast values of real gross domestic product of Nigeria from 2017 to 2030, using univariate
autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Based on real gross domestic product series for 1981-2016 period, the forecasts showed the possibility of attaining sustained increases in real gross domestic product in the years ahead, given appropriate policies and commensurate macroeconomic environment.


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