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Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreak Using Support Vector Regression (SVR) Case Study: Measles (Rubeola)

Authors: ADESEGUN Oreoluwa

Publication Type: Journal article

Journal: International Journal Of Scientific & Engineering Research

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Abstract— Disease outbreak forecasting, provides warning that a certain amount of disease may occur at a particular time in the future. This research work uses measles, which is a highly contagious disease caused by the measles virus, “Morbillivirus” as a case study. It has been problematic detecting the outbreaks of measles, which leads to high childhood mortality rate with either little or no response from the public health workers. Therefore, there is the need to forecast measles outbreaks to assist the public health workers facilitate preventive measures in Oyo state. Past measles outbreak records (2008-2015), obtained from the ministry of health, Oyo state, Ibadan by training a machine learning algorithm, Support Vector Regression (SVR). Three features were extracted which are, Moving Average (MA), Statistic, and Relative Strength Indicator. The result of this research returned a Boolean value which depends on the set value for the outbreak size. Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Relative Error (MRE) were the metrics used to measure the performance of the algorithm by using an instance of window size of 6 on the algorithm; MSE and MRE were 8.5 and 58.7% respectively. Another parameter of significance is the window size, which represents the number of previous data selected in order to estimate each feature from the measles record data. Therefore, it can be concluded that the window size value affected the training time of the algorithm and the efficiency of the models generated. The results of this research can be used as a tool to facilitate the preparedness against Measles outbreak ahead of time.

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ADESEGUN,O. . (2020). Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreak Using Support Vector Regression (SVR) Case Study: Measles (Rubeola), 11 (), 345-345.

ADESEGUN,O. . "Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreak Using Support Vector Regression (SVR) Case Study: Measles (Rubeola)" 11, no (), (2020): 345-345.

ADESEGUN,O. and . (2020). Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreak Using Support Vector Regression (SVR) Case Study: Measles (Rubeola), 11 (), pp345-345.

ADESEGUNO, . Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreak Using Support Vector Regression (SVR) Case Study: Measles (Rubeola). 2020, 11 ():345-345.

ADESEGUN,Oreoluwa , . "Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreak Using Support Vector Regression (SVR) Case Study: Measles (Rubeola)", 11 . (2020) : 345-345.

A.Oreoluwa , "Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreak Using Support Vector Regression (SVR) Case Study: Measles (Rubeola)" vol.11, no., pp. 345-345, 2020.

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